Silly Season Starts In Earnest - Where Will Fernando Go?

When the news broke that Fernando Alonso had threatened in Hungary to turn over incriminating e-mails to the FIA about McLaren's spying on Ferrari, it became apparent that he would not be returning with McLaren next season. This was confirmed when we learned that he had not spoken to Ron Dennis since the qualifying war at Hungary, and his subsequent run-in with Ron that led to the threat to turn over the e-mails.

Alonso may have a contract with McLaren, but we all know a few things:

1. Alonso will likely be World Champion this year.
2. He's not happy at McLaren, and chafes under its corporate atmosphere.
3. He's not happy having to battle his teammate for points and attention.
4. He probably has enough incriminating evidence to get McLaren excluded from the 2008 season.
5. If McLaren was to be excluded next season, he's definitely got an out in his contract.

So where does he go? There are only 4 teams with realistic chances of winning or scoring podiums: McLaren, Ferrari, Renault, and BMW. Let's look at each:

1. McLaren: He's not coming back to McLaren. Look for everyone to walk away declaring victory.
2. Ferrari: Having watched Alonso and Hamilton battle it out at McLaren has probably cemented Ferrari's policy of having a strong #1 driver. Right now that's Kimi Raikkonen. They won't want any part of the war McLaren's had this season. One website has Alonso moving to Ferrari to replace Massa, with Massa moving to Toyota to replace Ralf. Massa may leave for Toyota, but Alonso won't replace him. Ferrari's gunning for Nico Rosberg.
3. BMW: They may be looking to replace Nick Heidfeld, but that's not a done deal. Alonso's unlikely to want to go to a team that is still "best of the rest". Remember Damon Hill going to Arrows?
4. Renault: They've slipped badly this season, but that has more to do with Fisi's poor performance and the feeling last year that Renault may pull the plug. Remember, the threat that Renault may cut funding was what drove Alonso to McLaren in the first place. Renault has re-committed to F1, and that may help lure Alonso back. Fernando also has a great relationship with Flavio Briatore, even though he negotiated the McLaren deal behind Flavio's back. Flavio protested, but you know he really just shrugged his shoulders and thought, "Well, there you go." Ominously, McLaren has been making noises about lodging's complaint about Renault with the FIA; this is largely viewed as a shot across the bow to make Renault back off their pursuit of Alonso.

Final call: Alonso returns to Renault. We'll call the other teams next week.

Raikkonen Rules at Spa

Kimi Raikkonen cruised to an easy victory at Spa on Sunday, keeping his title hopes alive as the 2007 season winds to a close. The race was unfortunately dry; rain at Spa makes for some memorable races. Schumacher cemented his rep here with some stirring drives in the rain.

Raokkonen easily led home his teammate, Felip Massa, who seems to have hit a rough patch lately. They were followed home by the McLarens of Fernando Alonso and Lewid Hamilton. Mclaren was clearly off the pace, and it could easily be said that the recent SpyGate media frenzy has taken their eyes off the ball. $100MM will do that to you...

Finishing out the points were Nick Heidfeld's BMW, the ever-impressive Nico Rosberg in the Williams -Toyota, followed by Mark Webber's Red Bull and Heikki Kovalainen's Renault.

Of all the rest, the most impressive drive had to be Vitantonio Liuzzi's surprise 12th in the Toro Rosso, ahead of the factory Hondas, Spykers, and Super Aguris. He drove a great race, and it's a shame he's being dropped just as he hits his stride.

This was another boring race, except for the first corner, always a treat at Spa. The field runs down to a hairpin turn, then makes the downhill run to Eau Rouge. It's always packed at the first corner, and this race was no exception. Hamilton tried an end-run around Alonso, who was having none of it. He pushed Lewis to the outside; Hamilton rejoined side-by-side as they ran down to Eau Rouge. Alonso had the inside, and Hamilton wisely backed off. Lewis later complained about Alonso's tactics, but they appeared to me to be perfectly acceptable, if a bit rough. This is not karting, the World Championship is at stake. No one should ever doubt Alonso's determination to win at all costs. Hamilton would be best advised to keep his head down, his eyes open, and his mouth shut. He's showing rookie nerves, and whinging about your teammate is never good form.

Spygate Update

The FIA has published a copy of its decision on its website:

http://www.fia.com/resources/documents/17844641__WMSC_Decision_130907.pdf

In short, it's devastating to McLaren.

Mike Coughlin was being fed data from Nigel Stepney far in excess of what we had already known, down to what lap Kimi Raikkonen was going to stop on in Bahrain.

Cooughlin fed secret data to Pedro De La Rosa and then on to Fernando Alonso, including brake system design and performance, weight distribution (down to 2 decimal points!) and other information that definitely gave McLaren an advantage.

Most of the new information came from McLaren e-mail, text messages, and phone calls. Also, the FIA received information from Italian Police investigating the case.

The FIA gave immunity to Mclaren's drivers for providing data, which is why they have not been bumped from the championship.

Max, Will You Take a Check?

McLaren was hit today with a $100 MILLION DOLLAR fine for stealing the trade secrets of rival Ferrari. The fine was handed down by the World Motorsports Council of the FIA.

Additionally, McLaren has been stripped of all its Constructor's points for the 2007 Season. They will also have to submit their 2008 car for inspection by the FIA and may be excluded from the championship next year.

Most importantly for the Driver's Championship, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton get to keep their points towards the World Driver's Championship, and can continue to accrue points.

The fine is certainly unprecedented, but McLaren's drivers can still win the championship. And everyone remembers the World Driving Champion, and only F1 geeks like me know who wins the Constructor's Championship. So while the penalty is harsh, in practical terms McLaren gets off without losing everything. If they indeed stole Ferrari's data, then they should get bounced completely. But we all know that ain't gonna happen.

Ron Dennis was visibly shaken by the verdict, as it implies that McLaren is cheating. Ron is many things, but I sincerely doubt he knew of Mike Coughlin's possession of the Ferrari data.

McLaren may appeal the ruling.

What remains to be seen is the reaction of Mercedes-Benz to today's ruling. As a majority owner of the team, Mercedes is guilty by association. This can't help the already poor relations between McLaren and Mercedes, especially after the failure of the Mercedes-McLaren SLR sports-car program. Mercedes has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into McLaren in terms of engine development and other technical assistance, and they have to be furious about the sanction.

What of McLaren's drivers? Alonso and Hamilton are both under long-term contracts, but I imagine that at least Alonso has a clause that would let him out of the deal if McLaren is excluded next season. I'm sure his lawyers are working overtime looking for a possible out for Fernando. As is Ferarri, who are desperate to turn around their fortunes, and are looking to replace Massa and/or Raikkonen with a more consistent driver.

The McLaren team will be under siege at Spa, and the world motorsports press will be hounding Ron Dennis without mercy. He's always been a bit arrogant, and for many in the press, this is a comeuppance he truly deserves.

Alonso Cruises in Monza

Fernando Alonso cruised to an easy victory at the Italian Grand Prix at the historic Monza track. He easily raced to the pole in qualifying, and was never seriously challenged in the race.

Monza stands out as the only real low-downforce "speed" track on the F1 schedule. He led home championship leader Lewis Hamilton by 6 seconds (though it wasn't nearly that close), with Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari far, far behind. At Ferrari's home track, it was a huge disappointment for the tifosi.

Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica continued to be "the best of the rest", followed by the resurgent Wiliams-Toyota of Nico Rosberg. He led Heikki Kovalainen's Renault, and Jensen Button in the forlorn Honda, who gained one point and doubled Honda's points haul for the season.

Felipe Massa retired early on with a broken suspension, effectively ending his title hopes.

Ferrari had hoped their form in Turkey would lead to success at Monza, but it wasn't to be. McLaren was easily the class of the field all weekend, and Alonso made it very clear he wasn't going to surrender his title to Hamilton without a fight. Alonso has the bit firmly in his teeth now, and he has always liked Spa.

As the circus heads to my favorite track, the title looks to be a straight fight among the McLarens. Kimi Raikkonen let too many races get away before he found his form, and Massa's been too inconsistent to really challenge the boys from Woking.

Spa. The greatest track in the world, without a doubt. Eau Rouge, The Bus Stop, the list of legendary corners goes on. The greatest test of man and machine is the ability to go through Eau Rouge flat. Even in recent years, with the incredible downforce available, this complex of corners has always been the greatest challenge. If you really want to see the greatness of Spa, rent (or preferably buy) John Frankenheimer's Grand Prix. The shots he took of the old course from a low-flying helicopter, while his cameraman hung out the door, are some of the best racing footage ever brought to the screen.

See you there.